1. The sign-up bonus (SUB) is the headline
The SUB is usually worth more than 1–2 years of category earnings combined. Look at three things: points, minimum spend, and time to hit it. A 90,000-pt bonus on $6,000 in 3 months is meaningless if your real monthly spend is $1,000.
Then convert to value: rough rule is 1.5–2¢ per point for Chase UR / Amex MR / Capital One Miles when transferred to airlines. Hotel currencies are 0.5–1¢.
2. Earn rates — does it actually fit YOUR spend?
A 4x dining card is useless if you spend $80/month on restaurants. Pull your last 3 months of statements and bucket them: dining, groceries, gas, travel, online, everything else. The right card matches your top two buckets.
- ✓Match the card's bonus categories to YOUR top spend, not the average American's.
- ✓Multipliers above 4x are rare and usually capped or category-specific — read the fine print.
- ✓1x on 'everything else' is normal. If you spend a lot outside categories, look at flat-rate cards like Freedom Unlimited (1.5x) or Capital One Venture (2x).
3. Transfer partners are where the value is
A card's transfer partner list determines its ceiling. Chase UR transfers to Hyatt at 1:1 (worth 2–3¢/pt on luxury redemptions). Amex MR transfers to ANA, Singapore KrisFlyer, and Virgin Atlantic — three of the best programs in the world.
Cards that don't have transfer partners (most cash-back cards, hotel-branded cards locked to one chain) cap your value at ~1¢/pt. That's fine if you want simplicity, but you're leaving money on the table.
4. Credits — only count what you'll actually use
The Amex Platinum has $1,500+ in 'credits' on paper. But the Saks credit, Equinox credit, and Walmart+ credit only matter if you already shop there. Subtract the credits you'll never use from the annual fee. That's your real cost.
5. Annual fee math
Calculate effective annual fee = sticker AF − credits you'll actually use. Compare that to the points you'll earn from your real annual spend × transfer value. A $695 AF card with $400 in usable credits is really a $295 card.
6. The fine print that bites
- ✓Foreign transaction fee — 3% kills a card for international travel.
- ✓Sign-up bonus restrictions: 'never had this card or one in the same family' (Amex once-per-lifetime), '48 months since you closed it' (Chase).
- ✓Spend timer: 3 months is standard, 6 months is generous.
- ✓Anniversary points or perks (CSP gives 10% back yearly, Hilton Aspire gives a free night).
- ✓Authorized user fees (Amex Platinum is $195/AU, Gold is free).
7. Where to verify offers (trust nobody)
Card sites change offers constantly. Always verify against:
- ✓The issuer's own website (incognito tab so you see the public offer).
- ✓Doctor of Credit — tracks elevated/historical offers.
- ✓Frequent Miler & The Points Guy — for actual valuations, not affiliate rankings.
- ✓r/churning wiki — for current best-offer threads and SUB tracking.
- ✓Cardpointers, Allmiles, MaxRewards — apps that surface targeted Amex/Chase offers loaded on your existing cards.
8. Decide using the 90-second test
Before you click apply, answer these out loud:
- ✓Will I hit the minimum spend WITHOUT manufacturing it?
- ✓What's the real value of the SUB at my redemption rate (be conservative)?
- ✓What's the effective AF after credits I actually use?
- ✓Does it pair with cards I already have, or duplicate them?
- ✓What rule am I against — Chase 5/24, Amex once-per-lifetime, Capital One 1/6, Citi 8/65?
If you can't answer all five, you're not ready to apply. Read more, or run it through the tracker.